In Support of Tea Parties

Originally Published in Flourishing May/June 2010

Some of you will disagree with what I say in this article, including some members of my own family.  (But, Superman agrees with me.)  I tell you that to remind you of two things:  First, I have no partisan ax to grind.  My political hero is George Washington, and, unfortunately, he’s dead.  I’m interested in political philosophy, history, and economic science—not partisan politics.  Second, this newsletter is a labor of love, written with nothing but my clients’ interests in mind, and I think you deserve my honest opinion on issues that affect all of us.  Happily, the feedback I’ve received from clients over the years has been decidedly positive.  As always, agree or not, I thank you for your business.

Do you remember how people were outraged by the Bush/Paulson $700 billion bank bailout?  Or the $180 billion for AIG?  Or President Obama’s dismissive treatment of Chrysler bondholders and the auto industry takeovers?  Then, we saw the passage of an $800 billion stimulus package, with its litany of mostly irrational, hastily conceived supposedly shovel-ready projects.  In my opinion, this was all unnecessary and mainly helped a few politicians and their business associates, some influential labor unions, and state and local governments. 

Then there was the 2010 federal budget deficit of $1.4 trillion.  The national debt, which was 50% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2008, will approach 80% of the GDP by 2012.  This program was sold primarily as a “jobs creation package”; yet, unemployment remains at nearly 10% of the American workforce.  (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/pdf/hist.pdf)

Now we have Obamacare, with concern from some of the American people, using tactics that politicians used to their advantage.  It was uncomfortable for me to watch, as one legislator after another voted for this legislature.  It now seems likely that those 2700 pages will add at least $1 trillion, possibly $2 trillion, (who can really know?) to our nation’s debt.

Spending of this magnitude is unlike anything Americans have ever seen—allowing for the wartime spike of 1942 to 1945.  What scares people, I think, is that today’s spending doesn’t look like a spike; its shape is an asymptote to indigence.  In my opinion, this fiscal irresponsibility will diminish their freedom, their quality of life, and their children’s futures.  On the other hand . . .

The entrepreneurial spirit that defines America is too powerful to be swept away.  Many Americans take their responsibility for their won lives quite seriously.  They value their independence and the freedom to structure their lives as they see fit.  They resent being subject to policies created by opposing politicians and bureaucrats, and, if you please, to policies supported by people who expect to be taken care of by politicians and bureaucrats.  Some Americans are of an ambitious breed, not keen to trade self-determination and affluence for extended unemployment benefits and a healthcare queue. They do not want the government to run care companies, banks, or clinics.

Besides, the disparity between President Obama’s campaign promises and his governing style are now too apparent.  People expected transparency and tolerance, not duplicity and disdain.  The President and Robert Gibbs can slander the tea party movement, if they like, and at the risk of their own credibility; but I believe most tea-partiers are neither bullies nor bozos.  In fact, some surveys have shown that a majority—particularly the organizers—are well-educated women.  (http://volokh.com/2010/04/15/national-survey-of-tea-party-supporters–done-by-the-new-york-times-and-cbs-news/)  Nor are they Tim McVeigh types, as some have suggested; I see them as Patrick Henry types.  They’re our neighbors, driven by their dedication to freedom.  They know American history, and they respect our founders’ Constitution.  They are, for the most part, members of America’s honest, intelligent, and productive middle class.  As the Wall Street Journal has noted, when President Obama vilifies and denigrates those he’s elected to serve, he dishonor’s himself, not the targets of his invective. 

I’m confident that most Americans still have an inbred love for liberty.  Most take appropriate pride in their personal achievements.  Just look around, or better yet, in the mirror.  Then look at Greece, a European country where those who live on the dole outnumber productive citizens.  That country is quite literally bankrupt and it appears to me as if it’s the freeloaders who are taking to the streets to defend their nanny-state entitlements in violent demonstrations.  Some people worry that America is heading down that same path.  Maybe we are; but I don’t think so. 

Just consider this difference.  In America, it’s the producers who are taking to the streets, and peacefully so.  The tea party movement is a non-violent, grass-roots campaign for fiscal responsibility and a more limited government.  I think the tea parties foretell a dramatic and overdue return to America’s founding principles, and more prudent economic and fiscal policies from government at every level.  Mh

The above material reflects the opinions of Michael Harvey and not those of LPL Financial.

The Catallaxy Revisited

Originally Published in eFlourishing Issue 19, June 15, 2010

 “We see in almost every part of the annals of mankind how the industry of individuals, struggling up against wars, taxes, famines, conflagrations, mischievous prohibitions, and more mischievous protections, creates faster than governments can squander, and repairs whatever invaders can destroy.”

– Thomas Babington Macaulay (1800 – 1859), quoted in The Rational Optimist, by Matt Ridley.

Because I am a confirmed optimist, some of you may think that I don’t understand how bad things are out there. I assure you that I do, and this article is offered in evidence.

According to Neil Barofsky, special investigator general for TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), the United States has now spent approximately $3 trillion on programs designed to heal our financial system and replace jobs lost during the recent financial crisis and recession.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the European Union (EU) has created a loan fund of almost €1 trillion (Euros). The fund’s purpose is to rescue euro zone countries like Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain – unfortunately, but accurately, referred to in the media as “the PIGS”. The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced that it’s ready to buy both government and private bonds “to ensure depth and liquidity” in the market for deadbeat debt. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank have all agreed to help facilitate this bailout. This is a spendthrifts’ consolidation loan, complete with austerity mandates that, in my opinion, will ultimately lead to violence. In Europe, I believe that that’s the good news.

Just as in our mortgage meltdown, banks are at the epicenter of the current European debt and currency crisis; and German banks are some of the most highly leveraged institutions in the world.

I could go on, but I think the point is made. Ballooning budget deficits, already out of control prior to the orgy of bailout and stimulus spending, are beyond ineffective; in my opinion. (I have intentionally omitted the $100 trillion of unfunded liabilities associated with Social Security and Medicare, and the truly negative budget implications of Obamacare that don’t kick in until 2014. What would be the point?) We should learn from the poor Europeans, whose cradle-to-grave entitlement dogma is rotting their once-great civilizations.

I get all that, and I understand why people are concerned.

Nevertheless, I remind you that some American non-financial corporations have more cash on their balance sheets than at any time in more than fifty years. That does not mean that there are no opportunities for businesses to expand and profit; there are many. Rather, with interest rates on savings still less than 1%, increasing corporate cash may be a measure of the irrationality and unpredictability of government policy. Prudence trumps profit.

Last week, I suggested that you read The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, by Matt Ridley. That recommendation stands, and will stand; it’s an important book, and one that is destined to become a classic. It reveals that throughout human history, voluntary exchange in the marketplace has been the golden goose of human progress. Exchange is to human nature as nest building is to birds – it’s what we do. Over the past two centuries, exchange has been greatly facilitated by advancements in transportation and communication technologies. Progress has gone viral. Today, American business represents humanity performing its highest functions at an extraordinary level of proficiency; it is the most rational, most innovative, most life-serving, most achievement oriented, and the most forward-looking institution in the history of the world.   

Be an optimist.

*Deficits: 2008 = $680.469 billion; 2009 = $1.471 trillion; 1Q2010 = $328.929 billion.

Sources:

Heflin, Jay, The Hill, May 20, 2010. http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/banking-financial-institutions/93285-government-has-spent-3-trillion-and-counting-on-financial-crisis

Bureau of Economic Analysis, March 26, 2010. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2010/gdp4q09_3rd.htm

Council of Economic Advisers. http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/cea/estimate-of-job-creation/

McPheters, Lee, February 3, 2010. http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1857

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, May 7, 2010. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf